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In the course of the program several quiz questions are waiting for you.
SITAS was developed by Karin Ulbrich, Elisabeth Kühn, Oliver Schweiger and Josef Settele (all from the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research-UFZ) in collaboration with Sven Pompe (Aktivschule Erfurt) and Sebastian Körnig (Christian-Wolff-Gymnasium Halle). Programmers were Sebastian Wiedling and Christian Schulz (both UFZ).
"The future can best be predicted if you design it yourself."Alan Cay (US Computer Scientist)
Biodiversity, that is the diversity of animal and plant species, their habitats and genetic diversity, is exposed to increasing risks.
A total of 105,000 species are on the "Red List" of the World Conservation Union (IUCN), 28,000 are considered directly threatened with extinction. However, ecosystems with rich diversity are our livelihoods because they are more stable over the long term than low-species ecosystems.
Are we dependent on speculation when it comes to the question of the future?
SITAS shows how uncertainties and risks are dealt with in science.
The tasks of IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services):
Ecosystem services are nature's services for humans. They enable us to satisfy basic needs such as access to water and food. Biodiversity is an essential cornerstone of ecosystem services.
Research the Internet and find examples of the four categories of ecosystem services:
Red list of endangered species: lists of extinct, lost and endangered animal, plant and fungal species, plant communities, biotope types and biotope complexes relating to specific regions. In Germany, the Red Lists of the Government and the federal states are of particular importance.
SITAS was developed in close collaboration between science and school.
Think about which insects occur in the house, garden, forest or pond.
Are there flower strips in your surroundings? Keep an eye out and observe which plants are visited by insects.
But the question arises:
Think about meadows in your area that are suitable habitats for butterflies.
While most butterflies are territorial, there are also some butterflies that travel long distances. One example is the Painted Lady Vanessa cardui. Millions of butterflies migrate from North Africa to Europe every year. They are carried by the wind, reaching even Ireland and Scandinavia. The descendants migrate back to the warmer south. Many animals die in the Alps.
The presence of the Large Blues depends on the coexistence with ants of the genus Myrmica. Find out on the Internet what the threat status of ants is in your state.
The following video shows the "Large Blues".
The data of the nationwide butterfly monitoring for Aglais urtica (Kühn et al., 2018) do not yet show a clear trend for increase or decrease. Think about why this could be so.
Committed citizens participate in scientific projects. They are also known as Citizen scientists. Their contributions may include observing nature, recording historical facts (e.g. through surveys) or taking over small parts of complex calculations. Butterfly monitoring is one of the best-known Citizen Science projects in Germany.
Of the 53 statistically analyzed species, 21 species showed declines. Particularly clear examples are the the Dark Green Fritillary Argynnis aglaja, the Small Pearl-bordered Fritillary Boloria selene and the Pale Clouded Yellow Colias hyale, but also the Mourning Cloak Nymphalis antiopa and the Large Cabbage White Pieris brassicae. A negative trend was also observed in the Dusky Large Blue P. nausithous.
Of the 53 species analysed, 13 species showed an increase in numbers between 2006 and 2017. The positive trend was particularly marked for the Berger's Clouded Yellow Colias alfacariensis and the Brimstone Gonepteryx rhamni. The Ringlet Aphantopus hyperantus, the Small Heath Coenonympha pamphilus and the Chalkhill Blue Polyommatus coridon also showed a continuous positive development. The Red Admiral Vanessa atalanta also shows an increasing trend (see figure).
It is still unclear where the development of the Orange tip is heading.
It becomes obvious that the assessment of the future status of many populations is associated with uncertainty.
Before we dive into the scientific methodology:
Simulate the impact of climate change on butterflies in Europe.
2000
GREEN, YELLOW and RED are future scenarios that describe possible social developments. They will be explained a few pages later.
Unfortunately wrong!
Think again.
Think again.
Right! The climate there is unsuitable. The climate therefore determines decisively where the butterflies live.
Not true! The climate influences the habitat. Some species have only a small ability to distribute and cannot reach new areas.
The answer is correct. It depends on their ability to distribute, but also on the landscape structures, whether the butterflies can colonize new areas.
Not true! The climate influences the habitat. Some species have only a small ability to distribute and cannot reach new areas.
In other words:
Where will there be a suitable climate?To the video
Consider other characteristics of the scenarios with regard to trade, transport, education, and others.
In the research project ALARM (A LARge scale risk assessment for biodiversity with tested Methods) scientists from 35 countries have investigated risks to biodiversity. Within the framework of this project, the scenarios described here were developed (alarmproject.net; Spangenberg et al., 2012).
Scenario RED assumes that natural resources are exploited to a very large extent; the laws of the market dominate over environmental protection. The mean earth temperature is expected to rise by 4.1°C by 2080.
Scenario YELLOW assumes large regional attempt to protect our resources, but overall environmental protection is insufficient. The mean earth temperature is expected to rise by 3.1°C by 2080.
Scenario GREEN: Assumption of globally successful efforts towards sustainable development in environment, economy and society. The mean earth temperature would therefore increase by a maximum of 2.4°C by 2080.
To the video
The butterfly tool is based on a climate niche model with four parameters. These parameters are explained in the advanced part.
Think again.
Think again.
That is correct. There can be no single, unambiguous answer in view of many uncertainties, e.g. due to climate change.
That is not right. Think again!
Yes, the method can be transferred to other animal and plant species. However, the data must be available for the corresponding climate niches.
That is not right. Think again!
That is not right. Think again!
Compare the modeling results for the Fire Salamander and the Common Toad. Which species explores higher risks?
That's not right. Choose another answer.
That's not right. Choose another answer.
That's right. Species such as spruce are exposed to great stress due to heat and drought. This makes them easy prey for bark beetles.
Can you see climate damage from trees in your area?
As a result of dry summers, large spruce stands have died off. The bark beetle spreads in the damaged trees. Find out how the problem of spruce dieback is managed in the Harz Mountains, in the Thuringian Forest and in the Bavarian Forest.
Butterflies are an essential link in the vital network of biodiversity. They are inextricably linked to the issues of our time: climate change, changes in land use, loss of biodiversity.
Use the Internet for research on the subject of biological diversity: definition, significance, vulnerability, protection.
Create a list of links to particularly relevant websites.
Use the butterfly tool to identify losers in climate change:
Select a butterfly and create protocols for the risks over time.
Organise a "climate conference" at which each group presents "their" butterfly.
Compare the results for the individual butterflies. What demands do butterflies have on their environment? What risks are they exposed to?
What protective measures are conceivable?
Click here for the Butterfly tool.
If you want to protect butterflies, you have to think of the caterpillars!
The content of external links is the sole responsibility of their operators.
The illustrations of the climate niches and the modelled geographical distributions of butterflies and climate parameters were taken from: Settele, J., Kudrna, O., Harpke, A., Kühn, I., van Swaay, C., Verovnik, R., Warren, M., Wiemers, M., Hanspach, J., Hickler, T., Kühn, E., van Halder, I., Vieling, K., Vliegenthart, A., Wynhoff, I., Schweiger, O. 2008. Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies. Pensoft Sofia.
Karin Ulbrich, Elisabeth Kühn, Oliver Schweiger, Josef Settele
Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung-UFZ GmbH, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig
Sven Pompe, Aktivschule Erfurt Sebastian Körnig, Christian-Wolff-Gymnasium Halle Ute Mischke und Heiko Temper, Geschwister-Scholl-Gymnasium Taucha
Christian Schulz, Sebastian Wiedling
Registration court: Amtsgericht Leipzig
Register number: HRB 4703
Chairwoman of Supervisory Board: MinDirig'in Oda Keppler
Scientific Director: Prof. Dr. Georg Teutsch
Administrative Director: Dr. Sabine König
Responsible for content: Dr. Karin Ulbrich
Email: Karin.Ulbrich@ufz.de Tel.: (0341) 235-1269 Fax: (0341) 235-1468 Internet: www.ufz.de
